Latest IATA Data Shows Air Cargo Recovery Accelerated in September
TL;DR: IATA's September 2025 data reveals air cargo recovery gaining speed with an 8% volume drop—better than August's 12.1%—driven by e-commerce peaks like Singles’ Day. **Regional gains in North America (+8.6%) and Africa (+8.2%) signal peak season momentum amid 2025 trade shifts.** Capacity fell 25.2%, boosting load factors to a record 56.9%.
Key Highlights from IATA's September Air Cargo Report
International Air Transport Association (IATA) data underscores **air cargo recovery acceleration** in September 2025, narrowing the year-over-year volume decline.
- Global ton-kilometers (CTKs) dropped 8% vs. last September, improving from August's 12.1% fall.
- Cargo load factor (CLF) soared to 56.9%, up 10.6 points year-on-year—a record high.
- Available capacity (ACTKs) declined 25.2%, easing from 29.4% in August.
This momentum aligns with 2025's e-commerce surge and stabilizing global trade.
Why Air Cargo Demand Is Accelerating Now
**E-commerce events like Singles’ Day, Black Friday, and Christmas are fueling air cargo recovery.**
New product launches, including iPhone updates and gaming consoles, boost freight volumes.
- Global merchandise trade forecasts improved to -9.2% contraction for 2025 (WTO data).
- 2025 national trade policy changes amplify peak-season demand.
- Air cargo volumes expected to rise further through year-end.
Asia-Pacific Air Cargo Trends: 15.9% YoY Decline Eases
**Asia-Pacific airlines saw freight volume drop 15.9% in September, better than August's 20.1%.**
Capacity fell 29.5%, reflecting grounded passenger flights repurposed for cargo.
- Key driver: Surging e-commerce exports from China.
- 2025 investments in regional infrastructure support recovery.
- Trade lanes to North America and Europe show strongest rebound.
North America Leads Air Cargo Recovery with 8.6% Growth
**North American carriers reported 8.6% year-on-year demand growth—the first in 10 months.**
Capacity dipped 15%, driven by e-commerce on Asia-North America routes.
| Region | CTK Change | Capacity Change | CLF |
|---|
| North America | +8.6% | -15% | Record High |
Europe and Latin America: Gradual Air Cargo Improvement
**European forwarder demand fell 15.4% in September, up from August's 18.9% drop.**
Latin America's sluggish 22.5% CTK decline persists amid 36.5% capacity cuts.
- Europe: Capacity down 31.8%; e-commerce aids slow recovery.
- Latin America: Vulnerable to trade disruptions in 2025.
Africa's Surprising 8.2% Air Cargo Demand Surge
**Africa airlines bucked trends with 8.2% YoY demand growth despite 28.1% capacity drop.**
Africa-Asia routes thrive on China's 2025 foreign investments.
- Small market shows volatility but strong recovery signals.
- Key for logistics firms eyeing emerging trade lanes.
2025 Air Cargo Outlook: Peak Season and Trade Shifts
**No major WCO revisions until 2027, but 2025 national changes drive air cargo dynamics.**
Expect sustained recovery with e-commerce and tech product booms.
- Monitor Singles’ Day impacts on Asia exports.
- Prepare for Black Friday capacity constraints.
- Leverage Africa-Asia growth opportunities.
FAQ: Air Cargo Recovery Insights 2025
Quick answers to top questions on IATA's latest air cargo data.
Q1: What caused September's air cargo recovery acceleration?
A: E-commerce peaks and regional demand surges narrowed global declines to 8%.
Q2: Which region saw air cargo growth?
A: North America grew 8.6% YoY, led by Asia trade lanes.
Q3: How high was the September cargo load factor?
A: CLF hit a record 56.9%, up 10.6 points year-on-year.
Q4: What's driving Africa's air cargo recovery?
A: China’s investments fuel Africa-Asia route demand by 8.2%.
Q5: Will air cargo improve through 2025 peak season?
A: Yes, Singles’ Day, Black Friday, and new tech launches boost volumes.
Q6: How did Asia-Pacific perform?
A: 15.9% CTK drop, improved from August's 20.1%.
Q7: What’s the 2025 global trade forecast?
A: WTO revised contraction to -9.2% amid recovery signs.
Q8: Why did capacity decline?
A: 25.2% ACTK fall due to reduced passenger belly cargo space.
Q9: Is Europe recovering?
A: Demand fell 15.4%, better than August's 18.9% drop.
Q10: Latin America outlook?
A: Sluggish at -22.5% CTKs, with deep 36.5% capacity cuts.
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