Introduction: The Evolving Air Freight Landscape

As we look ahead to 2025, the air freight industry is poised for significant changes and challenges. Recent industry insights reveal that approximately 75% of logistics professionals are considering increased use of air freight in the first half of 2025. This shift is primarily driven by concerns over potential ocean freight disruptions, including the possibility of another International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) strike.

The air freight market is facing an unprecedented level of activity and disruption, partly due to the potential changes in the de minimis tax exemption. This regulation currently allows products valued under $800 to enter the United States duty- and tax-free. Any modifications to this rule could have far-reaching implications for the industry.

In this article, we’ll explore the key trends shaping the air freight market in 2025 and beyond, drawing insights from industry experts and market analysis. We’ll also discuss how FreightAmigo’s Digital Logistics Platform can support businesses in navigating these changes effectively.

Trend #1: Air Freight Reaches Its Peak

The ongoing situation in the Red Sea and potential strikes have provided a significant boost to air freight demand. However, experts suggest that this surge may have reached its peak. Niall van de Wouw, Chief Airfreight Officer at Xeneta, notes, “The Red Sea situation and potential strikes are a boon for air freight, and we expect that to continue. However, we think the Red Sea situation has plateaued, and the premium or the boost that it has given to air freight has reached its peak.”

Traditionally, ocean freight has been the go-to option for large volume shipments due to its cost-effectiveness. However, when reliability – in terms of timeliness and service consistency – declines, shippers often turn to air freight as an alternative. This shift drives up air freight volumes and rates.

FreightAmigo’s Perspective: As a Digital Logistics Platform, we understand the importance of flexibility in shipping options. Our platform allows users to compare door-to-door freight quotes for various modes of transport, including air freight, enabling businesses to make informed decisions based on their specific needs and market conditions.

Trend #2: Demand Outpacing Supply

According to Thomas Kempf, Flexport’s Senior Director of Global Air Freight, air cargo capacity is projected to grow by a maximum of 4% to 5% in 2025. However, demand is expected to rise by 6% to 10%, depending on the trade lane. This imbalance between supply and demand is likely to create significant challenges and opportunities in the air freight market.

Key regions to watch include:

• China
• Indian subcontinent
• Middle East
• Vietnam

These areas are particularly significant in relation to EU markets. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has forced some European carriers to cut back or suspend their China routes due to airspace restrictions. This situation has created a competitive advantage for Chinese carriers who can still fly over Russian airspace.

Adriaan den Heijer, Executive Vice President of Cargo at Air France-KLM, predicts, “I think most European carriers will shift belly capacity away from China.” This shift is expected to further benefit Chinese airlines in 2025, allowing them to offer more competitive space and rates on Europe-to-Asia routes.

FreightAmigo’s Perspective: Our Digital Logistics Platform provides real-time access to a wide network of carriers, including those operating in key regions like China and Europe. This allows our users to find the most efficient and cost-effective air freight solutions, even in a market with capacity constraints.

Trend #3: Airlines Adapting to Shifting Consumer Demands

The air travel industry has seen significant changes in recent years, with over 4,000 new routes introduced globally in 2023 alone. Notably, 81% of these new routes (approximately 3,400) were designated for regional travel, reflecting a growing focus on domestic and regional connectivity.

Van de Wouw observes, “The mix of business and leisure travel has changed significantly. Corporate travel all over the world has gone down since COVID-19 due to numerous reasons, but leisure travel, especially the high-yielding leisure travel, has gained momentum.” This shift is creating a structurally different network mix for passenger airlines and passenger-cargo airlines compared to pre-COVID times, a change that is expected to persist.

FreightAmigo’s Perspective: As airlines adapt their routes and capacities to meet changing consumer demands, our Digital Logistics Platform remains agile and up-to-date. We continuously update our network of carriers and routes to ensure our users have access to the most current and efficient air freight options.

Trend #4: Evolution of Air-Centric Models in eCommerce

eCommerce continues to be a major driver of air freight demand, particularly in Asia-Pacific markets. According to Kempf, this region will account for 80% of the projected $36 trillion global B2B eCommerce market by 2026, with an expected growth of 20-25% in 2025 alone.

Consumer preferences are also evolving, with a growing interest in niche brands promoted through social media platforms like TikTok. This trend is reshaping demand patterns and driving growth potential in under-penetrated markets such as Southeast Asia and Latin America.

However, potential changes to de minimis regulations are expected to impact the eCommerce landscape significantly. Kempf anticipates an accelerated shift from air-centric models (90% air freight) to a 60%-40% blend of direct fulfillment and forward stock for major eCommerce players between 2025 and 2027.

The potential de minimis rule change is likely to result in a 20% cost increase on a SKU-level basis. While larger eCommerce players may be able to absorb these increased costs, smaller businesses are expected to face more significant challenges.

FreightAmigo’s Perspective: Our Digital Logistics Platform is designed to support businesses of all sizes in navigating these changes. We offer solutions for both direct fulfillment and forward stock strategies, helping eCommerce businesses optimize their logistics operations in light of changing regulations and market conditions.

Strategies for Businesses to Prepare for 2025

Given these emerging trends, businesses need to adapt their strategies to remain competitive in the evolving air freight market. Here are four key strategies recommended by industry experts:

1. Prioritize Supply Chain Agility and Diversification

Ensure your supply chain is flexible enough to respond quickly when needed. This may involve relocating parts of your supply chain to regions that align better with your business needs. The faster you can adapt, the more resilient your operations will be.

FreightAmigo’s Solution: Our Digital Logistics Platform offers real-time visibility and control over your supply chain, allowing for quick adjustments and decision-making. We provide access to a diverse network of carriers and routes, enabling easy diversification of your logistics strategy.

2. Optimize Inventory Management

Businesses that excel at adjusting inventory strategies—whether through stockpiling or just-in-time logistics—tend to stay ahead of the curve. Prioritize inventory models that align with your demand patterns and market conditions.

FreightAmigo’s Solution: Our platform integrates with various inventory management systems, providing real-time data on stock levels and shipment status. This integration allows for more accurate forecasting and efficient inventory management.

3. Leverage Free Trade Zones

Free trade zones can offer significant advantages in complex trade environments. Businesses should explore these zones to reduce costs and improve operational efficiency.

FreightAmigo’s Solution: We provide comprehensive information and support for businesses looking to utilize free trade zones. Our experts can guide you through the process and help you maximize the benefits of these zones.

4. Maximize Duty Drawback

In the U.S., duty drawback programs allow businesses to reclaim tariffs on goods that are re-exported. Taking full advantage of these programs can help mitigate tariff-related costs and improve overall profitability.

FreightAmigo’s Solution: Our Digital Logistics Platform includes features to help track and manage duty drawback claims, ensuring you can fully capitalize on these opportunities to reduce costs.

Conclusion: Embracing Digital Solutions for Air Freight Success

As we look towards 2025, the air freight market presents both challenges and opportunities. From capacity constraints to evolving consumer demands and regulatory changes, businesses must be prepared to adapt quickly and efficiently.

FreightAmigo’s Digital Logistics Platform is designed to support businesses in navigating these complex market conditions. By providing real-time access to a wide network of carriers, comprehensive tracking capabilities, and integrated solutions for customs clearance and trade finance, we empower businesses to optimize their air freight operations and stay ahead of market trends.

As the industry continues to evolve, embracing digital solutions will be crucial for success in the air freight market. With FreightAmigo, businesses can ensure they have the tools and support needed to thrive in this dynamic environment.

We invite you to explore how FreightAmigo’s Digital Logistics Platform can help your business prepare for the air freight market of 2025 and beyond. Contact us today to learn more about our comprehensive logistics solutions and how we can support your business growth in this evolving landscape.