Ecommerce Forecast 2024 | A Global Persperctive

January 4th, 2024: Maya Wong – Marketing Analyst at FreightAmigo

In the digital age, ecommerce has become a fundamental part of the global economy. The ecommerce forecast for 2024 paints an optimistic and dynamic picture, with significant growth expected worldwide. Ecommerce platforms are becoming more innovative, diverse, and accessible, fueling an upswing in online shopping trends. This article dives deep into the latest statistics, trends, and projections for the ecommerce landscape in 2024.

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Global Ecommerce Growth Projections

The global ecommerce growth rate for 2024 is projected at 9.4%, translating into a total of $6.3 trillion in global ecommerce sales. This growth trend is expected to persist, albeit at a slightly decelerated pace, with rates of 8.6% predicted for both 2025 and 2026. By 2027, global ecommerce sales are forecast to surpass the $8 trillion mark for the first time, marking a total increase of over $3 trillion from 2021, or overall growth of 61.1%.

Ecommerce vs Retail Sales

Ecommerce sales growth is expected to outpace traditional retail sales every year from 2023 to 2027. By 2024, total retail sales worldwide are predicted to rise to $31.1 trillion, a growth rate of 4.9% from 2023. This is 4.5 percentage points lower than the projected global ecommerce sales growth rate.

Leading Countries in Ecommerce Sales

China is anticipated to lead global ecommerce sales in 2024, with sales expected to exceed $3 trillion. The United States follows, with ecommerce sales projected to reach just under $1.2 trillion. Other significant contributors to global ecommerce sales include the United Kingdom, Japan, South Korea, India, Germany, Indonesia, Canada, and France.

Ecommerce Growth in the United States

In 2024, the U.S. ecommerce market is expected to account for 16.4% of total retail sales, surpassing $1.1 trillion. As of Q1 2023, U.S. ecommerce sales were recorded at $272.6 billion. This upward trend is expected to continue, with sales projected to reach $1.7 trillion by 2026, a 21.2% increase from the current rate.

Mobile Ecommerce Growth in the U.S.

Mobile commerce, or m-commerce, is predicted to constitute a significant portion of U.S. ecommerce sales in 2024. As of 2023, retail m-commerce sales in the U.S. were recorded at $511.80 billion. More than 50% of online shoppers in the U.S. prefer to shop using mobile devices, highlighting the increasing importance of mobile commerce.

B2B Ecommerce Projections

The global B2B ecommerce market is forecast to grow at a 14.5% compound annual growth rate through 2026. While advanced manufacturing, energy, healthcare, and professional business services are the primary drivers of B2B ecommerce, smaller markets such as Latin America and the Middle East are predicted to experience significant growth.

Ecommerce Trends to Watch in 2024

Several key trends are expected to shape the ecommerce landscape in 2024. These include environmental sustainability and responsible consumption, hyper-personalization and customization, AI-powered commerce, Natural Language Processing (NLP), voice search, creator brands, and marketplaces.

Environmental Sustainability and Responsible Consumption

Consumers are increasingly concerned about the environmental impact of their shopping habits. Ecommerce businesses that demonstrate a commitment to sustainability and responsible consumption are likely to attract more customers. For instance, products supported by ESG claims have seen a cumulative growth of 28%, compared to 20% for those without such claims.

Hyper-Personalization and Customization

As technology advances, ecommerce businesses are striving to replicate the personal touch of in-person customer relations. Hyper-personalization refers to data technologies that adapt to user inputs and behaviors, providing a tailored shopping experience. Customization, on the other hand, involves allowing shoppers to control their experience and provide input, such as adjustable search parameters or personalized product recommendations.

AI-Powered Commerce

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is expected to play a significant role in ecommerce in 2024. AI can help retailers understand customers’ needs and preferences and deliver more personalized shopping experiences. For instance, AI-powered systems can recommend product sizes to shoppers based on given body measurements and photos.

Natural Language Processing

Natural Language Processing (NLP) is a crucial technology for implementing AI customer service and hyper-personalized stores. NLP enables automated processes to understand what the customer is saying, thereby improving customer engagement and conversion rates.

Voice Search

As more consumers embrace home assistants like Alexa or Google Assistant, voice search has become an integral part of the ecommerce landscape. Voice-enabled shopping is on the rise, with around 33.2 million Americans shopping via smart speakers in 2023.

Creator Brands

The rise of creator brands is another notable trend in the ecommerce industry. These brands, often launched by social media influencers or content creators, leverage their online following to drive sales. Creator brands often sell directly to consumers, offering personalized products and gaining direct feedback from purchasers.

Marketplaces

Ecommerce marketplaces are platforms where multiple sellers can list their products for sale. These platforms offer businesses access to a vast audience and enable them to compete online without investing in their own stores. Some of the most popular ecommerce marketplaces include Amazon, Alibaba, eBay, and Etsy.

Conclusion

The ecommerce forecast for 2024 presents a vibrant and promising picture, underpinned by continuous innovation, technological advancements, and changing consumer behavior. As the global market continues to grow and evolve, businesses must stay abreast of these trends and adapt their strategies accordingly to thrive in this dynamic landscape. The future of ecommerce is undoubtedly bright, and the possibilities for growth and expansion are virtually limitless.