2025 Air Freight Market Outlook: Trends, Disruptions, and Strategies for Success

Key Air Freight Trends for 2025

Based on insights from industry experts and our own analysis, we’ve identified several critical trends that will impact air freight in 2025:

1. Plateauing of Red Sea Disruption Effects

The ongoing situation in the Red Sea has created significant challenges for ocean freight, leading many shippers to pivot to air cargo alternatives. However, experts believe this shift may have reached its peak. As Niall van de Wouw, Chief Airfreight Officer at Xeneta, notes: “The Red Sea situation and potential strikes are a boon for air freight, and we expect that to continue. However, we think the Red Sea situation has plateaued, and the premium or the boost that it has given to air freight has reached its peak.”

2. Continued Supply-Demand Imbalance

Despite the leveling off of Red Sea-related demand, the air cargo industry is still projected to face capacity constraints in 2025. Thomas Kempf, Senior Director of Global Air Freight at Flexport, predicts that air cargo capacity will grow by a maximum of 4% to 5%, while demand is expected to rise by 6% to 10%, depending on the trade lane. This imbalance will likely keep rates elevated and put pressure on shippers to secure space.

3. Shifting Route Dynamics for European Carriers

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to impact air freight routes, particularly for European carriers. Many airlines have been forced to adjust their flight paths to avoid Russian airspace, adding approximately two hours to flight times on Europe-Asia routes. This has created a competitive advantage for Chinese carriers who can still utilize Russian airspace. Adriaan den Heijer, Executive Vice President of Cargo at Air France-KLM, predicts: “I think most European carriers will shift belly capacity away from China.”

4. Evolution of Passenger Travel Patterns

The mix of business and leisure travel has changed significantly since the COVID-19 pandemic, with corporate travel declining and high-yield leisure travel gaining momentum. This shift is creating a structurally different network mix for passenger airlines and passenger-cargo airlines compared to pre-COVID times. Van de Wouw believes this trend “will be here to stay,” impacting belly cargo capacity and route offerings.

5. eCommerce Growth and Potential Regulatory Changes

eCommerce remains a major driver of air freight demand, particularly in Asia-Pacific markets. The global B2B eCommerce market is projected to reach $36 trillion by 2026, with Asia-Pacific accounting for 80% of this total. However, potential changes to de minimis regulations in the United States could significantly impact air freight strategies for eCommerce players. Kempf predicts “an accelerated shift from air-centric models (90% air freight) to a 60%-40% blend of direct fulfillment and forward stock for major eCommerce players between 2025 and 2027.”

Strategies for Success in the 2025 Air Freight Market

Given these trends and potential disruptions, how can businesses best prepare for the air freight landscape of 2025? We at FreightAmigo recommend the following strategies:

1. Prioritize Supply Chain Agility and Diversification

In an era of uncertainty, flexibility is key. We encourage our clients to develop agile supply chains that can quickly adapt to changing market conditions. This may involve:

• Diversifying sourcing locations to reduce reliance on any single region
• Building relationships with multiple air freight providers to ensure capacity options
• Investing in technology that enables real-time visibility and decision-making

2. Optimize Inventory Management

With potential capacity constraints and rate volatility, effective inventory management becomes even more critical. We work with our clients to:

• Implement data-driven forecasting to anticipate demand fluctuations
• Explore hybrid inventory models that balance just-in-time and safety stock approaches
• Utilize our Digital Logistics Platform to gain real-time insights into inventory levels and movement

3. Leverage Free Trade Zones

Free trade zones can offer significant advantages in complex trade environments, particularly as regulatory landscapes evolve. Our team can help you:

• Identify strategic free trade zone locations aligned with your supply chain needs
• Navigate the compliance requirements for operating within free trade zones
• Optimize your logistics network to maximize the benefits of these zones

4. Maximize Duty Drawback Opportunities

For businesses engaged in import-export activities, duty drawback programs can provide substantial cost savings. We assist our clients in:

• Identifying eligible products and transactions for duty drawback claims
• Streamlining the documentation and filing process for drawback claims
• Integrating drawback considerations into overall supply chain strategy

5. Embrace Digital Solutions

At FreightAmigo, we believe that technology is key to navigating the complexities of modern air freight. Our Digital Logistics Platform offers:

• Real-time rate comparisons across multiple carriers and routes
• Automated document generation and management
• Integrated tracking and visibility across your entire supply chain
• Data analytics and reporting to drive continuous improvement

Conclusion: Preparing for Success in 2025 and Beyond

The air freight market of 2025 will present both challenges and opportunities for businesses engaged in global trade. By staying informed of industry trends, embracing agility, and leveraging digital solutions, companies can position themselves for success in this evolving landscape.

At FreightAmigo, we’re committed to helping our clients navigate these changes and optimize their air freight strategies. Our comprehensive Digital Logistics Platform, combined with our team of industry experts, provides the tools and insights needed to thrive in the air cargo market of 2025 and beyond.

As you prepare for the future of air freight, we invite you to explore how FreightAmigo can support your logistics needs. From rate optimization to customs clearance and everything in between, we’re here to ensure your air cargo moves efficiently, cost-effectively, and sustainably in the years to come.